Sometimes bulls like to disguise as bears

Yesterday , and actually the last couple of days, my subscribers have been getting a lot of information regarding whats going on right now in the markets. From breadth, to macro, to volatility among other critical stuff.

But considering the amount of noise out there, and even PANIC ! I decided to publish this briefing OPEN AND ACCESIBLE TO EVERYONE.

Believe it or not. Recent price action is unequivocally bullish price action, and the setup-wise it’s one of the cleaner “higher-low” defenses we’ve seen in the past couple of months.

Here’s why it leans bullish:

1. The 50-day MA (currently ~6,667) has now acted as support twice in eight trading days

• Nov 7

• Yesterday (exact retest)

When price returns to a moving average that previously marked a low, tags it, and immediately reverses with conviction, that is textbook support confirmation. The fact that yesterday’s bounce was sharp and the index finished +0.3 % or so (small green but on a strong down-open day) shows buyers were waiting exactly at that level.

2. Failed breakdown / bear trap


Price wicked below the Nov 7 low (some prints, but closed well above it. That shakes out weak hands and late shorts, then the rebound traps anyone who sold the “break.” Classic bullish resolution.

3. $VIX behavior was even more telling


$VIX spiked to ~21.8–22 in the morning (highest since the September squeeze), but closed ~19.6. A volatility spike that fails to hold and reverses the same day almost always accompanies a tradable low in equities. It shows the fear came in, got absorbed, and evaporated. This is EXACTLY what you want to see at support.

4. Context of proximity to ATH


We are only inches off the ATH. In a strong uptrend, the “normal” pullback depth is 3–8 %. Hitting the 50-day on average volume, with quick reversal and no follow-through selling, is healthy consolidation, not distribution. It’s the kind of dip institutions accumulate rather than distribute.

What would flip this to neutral/bearish?

• A daily close below ~6,660 (50-day + prior low cluster) with expanding volume and $VIX closing above 22–23.

• Until that happens, the Nov 7 / Nov 14 double-bottom is the line in the sand.

There are of course more elements beside those, but this briefing paints the overall picture.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone !